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Friday, June 17, 2016

bonus shares and value

Bonus shares are quite frequently used by the Indian companies for a variety of reasons. These stock dividends are popular among the investors. 

Recently, one of my friends was talking about how an MNC showered shares after shares as a bonus to the stockholders in the past three decades. Little does he know that those gifts did nothing to the value of his shares.

More recently, the shareholders of TCS were demanding bonus shares at their annual meeting. TCS is the most valuable listed company in India with a market-cap of Rs.5,130 b. 

Not many investors understand that value of a business depends upon its cash flows, growth and the risk in those cash flows. If an event does not affect these, it cannot affect the business value. 

Bonus shares represent issue of additional number of shares to the existing shareholders in a specified ratio by way of a transfer from retained earnings. In other words, it is a book adjustment from retained earnings to share capital. Forget doing anything else, it does not even change book equity. The market price, obviously, adjusts to reflect higher number of shares outstanding. 

If you hold 100 shares with a market price of 50, after an issue of 1:1 bonus, you will end up with 200 shares having a market price of 25. You are not going to be any richer with these additional shares. 

Some companies play games with market through stock dividends or stock splits, just to bring down the market price of a share such that it becomes cheaper (of course only in the minds of investors) to buy and sell. These tactics might temporarily change market price; but the intrinsic value of the business remains unaffected. 

TCS will be well served if it concentrates on its operations rather than distractions such as bonus shares. It could consider stock buybacks if market price is considered a bargain; but is it? It could also consider operating independent of other Tata-group companies. The inter-holdings within the group make an investor wonder about what is going to happen to the excess cash.

In the meantime, investors should try to understand the business behind the stock rather than the stock ticker itself. I am not sure when an Indian shareholder will actually understand the real story behind bonus shares. 

Saturday, June 4, 2016

coke, fizz and fuss

Berkshire Hathaway recently concluded its first ever online annual shareholders meeting. And as usual in his inimitable style Warren Buffett dodged the question related to health aspects of Coke

Many more questions remain unanswered especially because his followers have the tendency to accept everything that he says or endorses as the ultimate truth. Under these circumstances he could be a bit more careful about how he appears on the public platform. Usually he is; but not on this occasion, not on Coke.

If he is a quarter Coca-Cola, and feels good about consuming it and is happy after consuming it, should it be true for others to consume it and should they therefore consume it? Defies logic, right?


How about some octogenarian who smokes a lot and enjoys good health? It is a clear case of statistical outlier. Would he then have the right to say that he enjoys tobacco, it has not harmed him and therefore it is a great product? What if he says that he would have outlived his twin, if he had one, who did not consume tobacco? Ridiculous or outrageous? Yeah, Buffett is an outlier too, yet this one does not deal with it thoroughly. 

Then there is his partner Munger who simply announced that anyone who questions the negative side of a thing without noting its positive side is immature and stupid. Yet, he forgot to mention the so-called positive sides of the great Coke. Whatever happened to the multidisciplinary models that he is associated with.

As a final comment, I recollect someone and rephrase him, if two very wise men say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing. It is always the buyer beware: One has to own one's thinking. Borrowed conviction can be harmful no matter where it has come from.

It is a fact of life that nobody is perfect, however smart one can be. So let's pass their remarks on Coca-Cola as an outlier too.

I have no qualms in saying that both Buffett and Munger are the smartest men I have come across. They aren't aware that they have educated me in more ways than one. They have conducted themselves extremely well and have been highly ethical. In fact, Buffett has influenced me more than anybody in matters of life. I am ever thankful to him.