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Thursday, June 28, 2018

there are rules for debt

Debt is an obligation; and obviously, it has costs. First and the biggest one is the default risk. Taken to extreme, it can lead to bankruptcy. This is real; and many a business has succumbed to its savage. It is true for the individuals too. History has told us about people who had to pay hefty price for taking on debt. Yeah, debt is merciless. Then there is loss of financial flexibility. Cash gets squeezed for the borrowers when they need it the most; ouch. There is always a conflict of interest between the owners of business (equity holders) and lenders of business. Again, this comes into play prominently when the business faces downturn. The marginal cost of debt zooms up before the borrower realizes it. 

All this trauma comes with just one advantage; that is, interest payments are tax deductible. If someone is looking to take debt for an asset otherwise not needed, this advantage quickly dissipates. I have seen too many businesses and people doing this as a matter of fact; and I am not even making it up. Just look at history.

I am not sure if this article is pointing to anything dramatic. Individuals have always got lured to the illusions of the kingdom of debt. But then there are certain rules for debt. Borrowers don't follow them at their own peril. 

First is that you should not borrow if you do not need to borrow. Cash is king; and you can be the emperor caressing it, figuratively. 

Second is that you should not borrow to buy a depreciating asset. I can understand the enthusiasm for car loans; but believe me, they will only make the lender richer. A little bit of common sense should tell us, it is much better to work towards making ourselves richer.

As a corollary, you can borrow to buy or produce an appreciating asset, such as business projects and home. While we know intuitively that the value of business and home equity will grow over the years, it is not always true. Put it differently, if the growth in business or home values (earnings rate) is lower than the interest rate on debt, it isn't a viable project. Don't borrow at 15% if you can earn only 10% on that cash. 

In short, if you don't have the capacity to service debt, don't borrow. Lenders can take control and throw you out. There have to be sufficient cash flows to make interest payments and principal repayments in order to qualify for loans. It is the job of both borrower and lender to assess this capacity. Otherwise, borrowers will be lurking, and lenders will be looking at bad assets.

Lack of financial flexibility due to unnecessary debt is actually a deterrent to one's wellbeing. I am not sure why people have to surrender their time to others until (or beyond) they reach retirement years. Time is the greatest wealth to which we cannot assign a value. There are costs to everything. If you want a Mercedes, you have to sell your time (work) towards making cash to pay for it. That is true whether you borrowed or not for it. There are no free lunches anywhere. 

Of course you can choose to forgo that Mercedes, and pick a much cheaper car; or, even choose not to buy a car. Then your working time will fall dramatically. At least that is how I see it. Financial independence is something that I value the most. Freedom to do things that I like are invaluable to me. I feel sorry for people who keep working for someone else all their life because it is self-inflicted. If only they had planned their lifestyle and finances, they could be having fun in life all the time. This is neither intimidating, nor difficult.

I measure success in terms of how much fun a person has in life, not in terms of how much money he or she has accumulated. It is easy to have fun with much lesser money than you can probably think. 

Monday, June 11, 2018

why paid news is not required to make money

I read news of course. Unlike some creeps who propagate that reading news is not healthy, I have no such qualms. Of course news is fun. 

I read news for only two reasons. It should give me some kick, and fun. If it does not interest me, I chuck it. Or it should help me make money. Usually the latter never happens unless it is coming from the insiders. I mean I could perhaps make money based on the published interviews of the management of a company. But more often, I read news for the sake of fun, just fun, nothing more than that. I am not interested in gaining knowledge out of news; general knowledge is overrated and exhausting. 

When it comes to investing, I don't pay heed to others' opinions. There are plenty of sources such as quarterly reports, annual reports, analyst presentations, and transcripts coming straight from the company. Why bother looking for some idiot's opinion about whether for instance, ICICI bank or Chipotle is a good buy or sell? I believe in doing my homework and then acting or not acting based upon it. 

This is a reason good enough for me not to subscribe to any of the paid news. There is already an overflow of real time news on both TV and the Internet. That is more than enough. If I need drama, I could pick up a book, or even some old news articles freely available on the net. For instance, if I want to read about Salomon Brothers and Berkshire Hathaway's episode, I simply go to my ever obedient secretary, Google. There you go, to keep busy for a few hours on the drama. Why the heck do I need paid subscriptions?

I check out a few newspapers that I pick for only headlines. If something sounds interesting and fun, I go further. With so much information freely available, there ain't much time for me to read every bit of it. There are better things to do in life than be submerged in the news whole day. 

In short, news yes; fun yes; any news that costs me is a big no. Generally, I have no regard for someone else's opinions. There are a few people who I admire for sure. Except for that, if it is an opinion, I like mine better; if it is a fact, yeah, I will take it. Paid news about a stock or a business is almost always somebody's opinion. I would rather pick up the financial reports and frame my own opinion. 

Sunday, June 10, 2018

why market timing is stupid

There are at least two things that are relevant to every investor. One, he or she does not, and should not, need an advisor. Two, the investor should not attempt market timing. No one is ever able to predict, especially the future. It really sucks. That means any one predicting market prices is a sucker. 

That said, it is pretty straightforward to be able to make money from equity markets. For most it is the index route that I recommend. 

Index investing is super
Keep throwing cash into a diversified index regularly for a long, long time. That's it. Simple and profound. Over the years wealth creation is guaranteed. It is also a very low risk way of making money. The longer the time you give your cash to compound, the lower the risk of loss it carries. Furthermore, it works as a tax deferred investment, which means value of your investments net of taxes is going to be higher. The beauty of this system is that your will never have to worry about the market prices, price-earnings, price-books, and so forth. Because you are so prompt and frequent in investing, the cost of your investments will average out, and that lets your rate of return higher. That is why index investing is powerful. Select the index; I like the S&P-500 and the Nifty-50; and march forward. The only catch is that you will earn the market returns; not any higher. Yet, for most investors that is sufficient to create long term wealth and be financially independent sooner than otherwise. The irony though is that most investors like the quicker route, and therefore, fail miserably. 

There are three variables in making money: The cash investments; the rate of return; and the time in the market. Two of them are under your control; concentrate on them, and ignore the rate of return to be earned. Whatever return you make will be better than the alternative investment opportunities. Try to increase investments and do not (ever) interrupt the compounding concoction. 

So chuck those idiots who come on TV and elsewhere to tell you what to do when market prices rise (they tell you to buy) and when prices fall (you know what they tell you). They are clueless, and a bunch of morons; you don't be one.

Stock picking is fun
A few investors who have both time and interest in learning the game should be able to do well by picking stocks. They will have to learn the difference between investment and speculation; price and value. They will also have to acquire one or more of the three skills required to become a successful stock picker: Information edge; analytical edge; and behavioral edge. In today's times of real time information flow, having information edge is akin to insider trading which is illegal. Analytical skill is quite useful and is required. But the behavioral skill is the most underrated one. Having the right behavior can do wonders to a stock picker's portfolio. Buying when no one is buying, selling when others are buying aggressively, and being able to do nothing for a long time is a great skillset to possess.

In short, don't be greedy or fearful; and most importantly, don't be envious. There are plenty of opportunities to make money and be happy. Don't choose to be a whiner. Then you will do well both in investing and in life.