Pages

Sunday, December 11, 2011

how attractive is the market?

Europe crisis, US recession and fear of a global meltdown have been the topics of discussion these days. Indian growth rate has been lowered to less than 7% going forward. Market has taken a beating from 20k to 16k as noted below.

Month Open High Low Close
Sep-10 18027.12 20267.98 18027.12 20069.12
Oct-10 20094.1 20854.55 19768.96 20032.34
Nov-10 20272.49 21108.64 18954.82 19521.25
Dec-10 19529.99 20552.03 19074.57 20509.09
Jan-11 20621.61 20664.8 18038.48 18327.76
Feb-11 18425.18 18690.97 17295.62 17823.4
Mar-11 17982.28 19575.16 17792.17 19445.22
Apr-11 19463.11 19811.14 18976.19 19135.96
May-11 19224.05 19253.87 17786.13 18503.28
Jun-11 18527.12 18873.39 17314.38 18845.87
Jul-11 18974.96 19131.7 18131.86 18197.2
Aug-11 18352.23 18440.07 15765.53 16676.75
Sep-11 16963.67 17211.8 15801.01 16453.76
Oct-11 16255.97 17908.13 15745.43 17705.01
Nov-11 17540.55 17702.26 15478.69 16123.46
9 Dec11 16555.93 17003.71 16142.32 16213.46

The fall has created panic in the market only to fear more fall. But within these parameters, is the market attractive today at this absolute figure?

Does not appear so if we have a look at the following table showing sensex yields over the years.

Year Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
1991 1027.38 1955.29 947.14 1908.85 22.3 3.58 1.24
1992 1957.33 4546.58 1945.48 2615.37 36.19 6.35 0.8
1993 2617.78 3459.07 1980.06 3346.06 31.78 4.81 0.98
1994 3436.87 4643.31 3405.88 3926.9 45.45 6.07 0.68
1995 3910.16 3943.66 2891.45 3110.49 23.63 3.81 1.13
1996 3114.08 4131.22 2713.12 3085.2 16.07 3.02 1.5
1997 3096.65 4605.41 3096.65 3658.98 14.45 2.8 1.53
1998 3658.34 4322 2741.22 3055.41 13 2.25 1.8
1999 3064.95 5150.99 3042.25 5005.82 17.35 3.07 1.38
2000 5209.54 6150.69 3491.55 3972.12 24.48 3.81 1.14
2001 3990.65 4462.11 2594.87 3262.33 17.6 2.51 1.83
2002 3262.01 3758.27 2828.48 3377.28 15.22 2.3 2.14
2003 3383.85 5920.76 2904.44 5838.96 15.02 2.49 2.14
2004 5872.48 6617.15 4227.5 6602.69 17.26 3.28 2.01
2005 6626.49 9442.98 6069.33 9397.93 16.21 3.94 1.58
2006 9422.49 14035.3 8799.01 13786.91 20.18 4.75 1.35
2007 13827.77 20498.11 12316.1 20286.99 22.25 5.32 1.1
2008 20325.27 21206.77 7697.39 9647.31 18.22 4.2 1.29
2009 9720.55 17530.94 8047.17 17464.81 18.08 3.42 1.43
2010 17473.45 21108.64 15651.99 20509.09 21.71 3.67 1.12
9Dec2011 20621.61 20664.8 15478.69 16213.46 19.38 3.45 1.3

With 19x p/e, over 3% p/b and less than 2% dividend yield it is far from the investors' market. Sure, there are opportunities at individual stock levels. But overall it could be the platform for traders, speculators and the like.

Take your pick!

No comments:

Post a Comment