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Friday, September 28, 2012

irrational....exuberance....and not so much..and that crystal ball

[Corporate India's ebitda margins are bottoming out and the risk of any further material decline is limited - a leading rating agency research report.

See the bse sensex at 23000 levels in the next 12-18 months. Expect a 5% up move in the markets before the winter session of the parliament - head of equities of a brokerage firm.

Expect the current level to extend. Support for nifty is seen at 5600 and one can expect it to breach the psychological level of 5850 going ahead - a leading bank and brokerage firm.

Nifty may see 5600; market set for new high in 12-18 months - a leading bank and brokerage firm.

India can achieve 9-10% gdp growth - chairman of a leading global investment bank.

Hold Tata Power; buy Tata Motors - a leading analyst.

Enter Coal India below 350 - a leading analyst.]

These are just a sample...the opinions go on..but did you get the point?

It is amazing to see how people show off their abilities to predict!

There is so much noise in all forms of media that even a rational investor has difficulty in controlling his emotions. The internet and television, in particular, have that mystical ability to (over) influence gullible public and to drive them into maniac..optimists at one point and ....pessimists at another just so easily.

The reason: that so-called greed and fear within humans. Brokers and analysts know this weakness (which is of course within them as well) and try to exploit it. As a wise man said, demand being there, it must be supplied.

Why can't these predictors, if at all they know it all, sell their assets and put all their money into these stocks or market? Why can't they borrow some (or more) and put in their (battle) field? If they did this, they could be so rich that they don't have to come on tv or elsewhere to show their prediction. The reality is they know for fact that they are as ignorant or less knowledgeable as anyone is. If not, they wouldn't be on tv in the guise of helping you to be rich. You can see that their intentions are as bad as it can be: if they knew everything, they would be rich anyway and wouldn't be so large-hearted to tell you their secret; because they do not know it all, they want to take a piece off you.

It does not take so much intelligence to know this simple thing that there is no such thing as a sure thing with foresight. These (predictor) analysts are out there to loot the public, it's nothing but a camouflage.

So next time, if someone tells you to buy this or sell that, you should be asking him this question: why don't you borrow some money yourself and do that transaction if you are so sure of this? And if you are not so sure, why are you telling me to do this?

Consider this: If that person/institution is a broker, he wants to make money irrespective of your buy or sell transaction and your profit or loss as his aim is to get those commissions from you. If that person is not a broker and simply wants to show off his predictive abilities and public image, you should just laugh lightly. It's time for you to do some serious work, watch your favourite movie or take a walk!

It is far better to know that all of us can be super-intelligent with hindsight. If we had done that back then, we would be this by now. But with foresight, you are kidding. 

As another wise man said, what you need is neither hindsight nor foresight, but insight, vision in the moment; what you do at this point of insight determines your future

There are exceptions everywhere, but at least you got the point by now. What investor needs to do is to decide what he wants to do - passive investment or active investment. This discussion is for another blog.

Lest we get faraway, I close this saying, caveat emptor! 
 

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