The outsiders' view
He is usually low on the US and Europe, and high on Asia and commodities; that is his view. I don't track Jim Rogers. I am not particularly interested in commodities as such, because for me they are subject to pricing mechanics, not value mechanics; and that is my view.
Nevertheless, I found his recent comments about India quite interesting. Some of his thoughts:
He is usually low on the US and Europe, and high on Asia and commodities; that is his view. I don't track Jim Rogers. I am not particularly interested in commodities as such, because for me they are subject to pricing mechanics, not value mechanics; and that is my view.
Nevertheless, I found his recent comments about India quite interesting. Some of his thoughts:
Well, these are his thoughts and views. How much of these are really true, it is for anyone to ponder.
The fish school
The government has been from the school of giving the fish, rather than teaching to fish thought. Free food, subsidized food, subsidized products, in exchange for non-subsidized votes, probably. Wouldn't job creation be better? Wouldn't partnering with the private be better if the state cannot do it alone? Tough questions I guess, but, is India really catching up with the world, is it behaving right? Imagine a state owned listed company looting its minority public shareholders in the name of general public subsidy.
An option to delay...for how long...
I do see opportunities for improvement, if only some questions are addressed properly. We need to first check what India has shown in the past several years in terms of employment, per capita income, and real growth; how easy it is to do business, both for domestic and foreign firms; what kind of infrastructure is in place; how flexible or stringent are the rules regarding capital, currency and profits to move. These are to be assessed on a relative basis, both what it was before and what it is now, and also how it compares with other economies. If other economies are better placed it is easy to tell that business, money and growth will flow there.
The advantage India has is that it is difficult for the world to ignore it; it is tough to shrug off a billion-plus people, the potential for demand is immense; consequently, there is colossal opportunity for doing business. It is up to India now to capitalize on this, or fall behind.
At this stage, though, it is tough to tell whether India is a democracy, or a socialist; or a socialist democracy, I don't even know what it means.
Right now for investors it is like an option to delay worth a very low value. India needs do everything to increase that option value.
The fish school
The government has been from the school of giving the fish, rather than teaching to fish thought. Free food, subsidized food, subsidized products, in exchange for non-subsidized votes, probably. Wouldn't job creation be better? Wouldn't partnering with the private be better if the state cannot do it alone? Tough questions I guess, but, is India really catching up with the world, is it behaving right? Imagine a state owned listed company looting its minority public shareholders in the name of general public subsidy.
An option to delay...for how long...
I do see opportunities for improvement, if only some questions are addressed properly. We need to first check what India has shown in the past several years in terms of employment, per capita income, and real growth; how easy it is to do business, both for domestic and foreign firms; what kind of infrastructure is in place; how flexible or stringent are the rules regarding capital, currency and profits to move. These are to be assessed on a relative basis, both what it was before and what it is now, and also how it compares with other economies. If other economies are better placed it is easy to tell that business, money and growth will flow there.
The advantage India has is that it is difficult for the world to ignore it; it is tough to shrug off a billion-plus people, the potential for demand is immense; consequently, there is colossal opportunity for doing business. It is up to India now to capitalize on this, or fall behind.
At this stage, though, it is tough to tell whether India is a democracy, or a socialist; or a socialist democracy, I don't even know what it means.
Right now for investors it is like an option to delay worth a very low value. India needs do everything to increase that option value.
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