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Saturday, May 30, 2015

when's the money amazon?

I like the business; I like the way it disrupted retail; I like the way Kindle revolutionized reading. For the year 2014, Amazon had revenues of $89 b. So far so good, and I thought about it as a firm with long term vision. But later I had to ask how long is this long term. 

Long term shareholders of this business have made money all along: In May 2010, it had a market cap of $56 b, and today it is $200 b. Just last year in Feb, it was selling for $159 b. Funnily enough, since it came out with its initial public offering in May 1997, it has never made any real money. 



Revenues increased 19% in 2014, and that's about it. Sure, Amazon is still in a disruptive growth mode, where you care about market share and then about making money. 

For its part, it presents the statement of cash flows first before statement of income and balance sheet. The reason appears to be obvious:


In claiming those free cash flows, it has conveniently forgotten that stock-based compensations are real expenses for the business.


Arguing that these costs are non-cash will be at their own peril. Otherwise, it would be much easier to pay every supplier with stocks and bring cash expenses to zero. This is for discussion another day.

It has also excluded acquisitions from calculating free cash flows, an error whether acquisitions are made through cash or by issuing stock.


At the moment, all I see is that Amazon as a business is yet to make real money. Usually, stock prices follow business profits in the long run. So far, the long run seems like too far away for Amazon because the stock prices are not reflecting business fundamentals.

There is another storyline for this business: Current earnings do not matter. What matters is the future earning power of the business. As long as Amazon is going to make disproportionately larger profits in later years, it is going to be fine. Market knows this, that's why it is factoring in the stock prices.

Which side of the story are you in? 

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