biggest markets forecast

According to this report by Standard Chartered, emerging markets will flourish by 2030, and the US will be the third biggest in terms of GDP measured using the purchasing power parity.

As of now, China is the leading economy with $26 t GDP measured in terms of PPP, and the US comes second with $20 t. India is much ahead ($9.5 t) of Japan ($5.4 t). So the three leading economies will still likely be the same.

market exchange rates

The current GDP of the US is about $20 t, and it has never grown more than 3% since 2005. If we assume 2.5% growth rate, the GDP will be $26 t by 2030.

At the prevailing exchange rates, the Indian GDP is $2.6 t. If it grows at a respectable rate of 7.5%, it will barely reach $6 t by 2030. Even a 10% growth rate will not take the GDP to more than $8.5 t by that date.

Now for China, from the current $12 t, the GDP will grow to $21 t at a rate of 5% over the 12-year period. 

Based upon the market exchange rates, though, the US will still probably be the biggest economy followed by China and then India.

Someone said, it is difficult to forecast, especially about the future. Time will tell us the reality, but until then, what's the harm in fooling around?